📖 原文
(1) There were two widely divergent influences on the early development of statistical (2) methods. Statistics had a mother who was dedicated to keeping orderly records of (3) governmental units (state and statistics come from the same Latin root, status) and a (4) gentlemanly gambling father who relied on mathematics to increase his skill at playing (5) the odds in games of chance. The influence of the mother on the offspring, statistics, is (6) represented by counting, measuring, describing, tabulating, ordering, and the taking of (7) censuses — all of which led to modern descriptive statistics. From the influence of the (8) father came modern inferential statistics, which is based squarely on theories of (9) probability. (10) Descriptive statistics involves tabulating, depicting, and describing collections of data. (11) These data may be quantitative, such as measures of height, intelligence, or grade level - (12) - variables that are characterized by an underlying continuum - - or the data may (13) represent qualitative variables, such as sex, college major, or personality type. Large (14) masses of data must generally undergo a process of summarization or reduction before (15) they are comprehensible. Descriptive statistics is a tool for describing or summarizing (16) or reducing to comprehensible form the properties of an otherwise unwieldy mass of (17) data. (18) Inferential statistics is a formalized body of methods for solving another class of (19) problems that present great difficulties for the unaided human mind. This general class (20) of problems characteristically involves attempts to make predictions using a sample of (21) observations. For example, a school superintendent wishes to determine the proportion (22) of children in a large school system who come to school without breakfast, have been (23) vaccinated for flu, or whatever. Having a little knowledge of statistics, the superintendent (24) would know that it is unnecessary and inefficient to question each child; the proportion (25) for the entire district could be estimated fairly accurately from a sample of as few as 100 (26) children. Thus, the purpose of inferential statistics is to predict or estimate (27) characteristics of a population from a knowledge of the characteristics of only a sample (28) of the population.
❓ 试题解析
问题 21： With what is the passage mainly concerned?
A. The drawbacks of descriptive and inferential statistics
B. Applications of inferential statistics
C. The development and use of statistics
D. How to use descriptive statistics
✅ 正确答案： C）The development and use of statistics
📝 解析： 全文讨论统计学的两大源头（描述性统计和推断性统计）以及它们的应用。
💡 解题技巧： 主旨题看首段历史渊源和后两段分别介绍两种统计。
问题 22： The word "divergent" in line 1 is closest in meaning to
A. different
B. distributed
C. recorded
D. prominent
✅ 正确答案： A）different
📝 解析： "two widely divergent influences" — divergent = 不同的/有分歧的。
💡 解题技巧： 词汇题：divergent = different = contrasting。
问题 23： According to the first paragraph, counting and census-taking are associated with
A. inferential statistics
B. descriptive statistics
C. unknown variables
D. qualitative changes
✅ 正确答案： B）descriptive statistics
📝 解析： "The influence of the mother ... is represented by counting, measuring, describing, tabulating, ordering, and the taking of censuses — all of which led to modern descriptive statistics"。
💡 解题技巧： 细节题定位"led to descriptive statistics"。
问题 24： Why does the author mention the "mother" and "father" in the first paragraph?
A. To point out that parents can teach their children statistics
B. To introduce inferential statistics
C. To explain that there are different kinds of variables
D. To present the background of statistics in a humorous and understandable way
✅ 正确答案： D）To present the background of statistics in a humorous and understandable way
📝 解析： 作者用"mother"和"father"比喻统计学的两个来源，使抽象概念更生动易懂。
💡 解题技巧： 修辞目的题看比喻的文体效果。
问题 25： The word "squarely" in line 8 could best be replaced by
A. solidly
B. geometrically
C. rectangularly
D. haphazardly
✅ 正确答案： A）solidly
📝 解析： "based squarely on theories of probability" — squarely = 完全地/稳固地。
💡 解题技巧： 词汇题：squarely = solidly = firmly。
问题 26： Which of the following is NOT given as an example of a qualitative variable?
A. Gender
B. Height
C. College major
D. Type of personality
✅ 正确答案： B）Height
📝 解析： 文中定性变量举例：sex, college major, personality type；身高（height）是定量变量。
💡 解题技巧： "NOT"题区分定量变量（quantitative）与定性变量（qualitative）。
问题 27： The word "they" in line 14 refers to
A. variables
B. masses
C.</ descriptive statistics
D. properties
✅ 正确答案： B）masses
📝 解析： "Large masses of data must generally undergo ... before they are comprehensible" — they 指 data masses。
💡 解题技巧： 代词题找前一个名词短语（masses of data）。
问题 28： Which of the following statements about descriptive statistics is best supported by the passage?
A. It reduces large amounts of data to a more comprehensible form.
B. It is based on probability.
C. It can be used by people with little knowledge of mathematics.
D. It measures only qualitative differences.
✅ 正确答案： A）It reduces large amounts of data to a more comprehensible form.
📝 解析： "a tool for describing or summarizing or reducing to comprehensible form the properties of an otherwise unwieldy mass of data"。
💡 解题技巧： 细节题定位描述性统计的功能。
问题 29： The word "unwieldy" in line 16 is closest in meaning to
A. unmanageable
B. unpredictable
C. understandable
D. unreliable
✅ 正确答案： A）unmanageable
📝 解析： "unwieldy mass of data" — unwieldy = 笨重的/难以处理的。
💡 解题技巧： 词汇题：unwieldy = unmanageable = cumbersome。
问题 30： According to the passage, what is the purpose of examining a sample of a population?
A. To compare different groups
B. To predict characteristics of the entire population
C. To detect differences not observable in the whole population
D. To compile more accurate data
✅ 正确答案： B）To predict characteristics of the entire population
📝 解析： "the purpose of inferential statistics is to predict or estimate characteristics of a population from a knowledge of the characteristics of only a sample"。
💡 解题技巧： 细节题定位"purpose of inferential statistics"。
🌐 中文翻译
统计方法早期的发展受到两种迥然不同的影响。统计学有一位致力于保持政府单位有序记录的"母亲"（state 和 statistics 来自同一拉丁词根 status），还有一位依靠数学来提高赌博胜算的绅士般的"父亲"。母亲对后代统计学的影响体现在计数、测量、描述、制表、排序和人口普查等方面——所有这些都导致了现代描述性统计。父亲的影响则带来了现代推断性统计，它完全建立在概率论的基础上。 描述性统计涉及对数据集合的制表、描绘和描述。这些数据可能是定量的，例如身高、智力或年级水平的测量——这些是以潜在的连续体为特征的变量——或者数据可能代表定性变量，例如性别、大学专业或人格类型。大量的数据通常需要经过总结或简化过程才能变得可理解。描述性统计是一种工具，用于描述、总结或将原本难以处理的大量数据的属性简化为可理解的形式。 推断性统计是一套系统的方法，用于解决另一类对人类思维本身来说极其困难的问题。这类问题的典型特征是尝试利用样本观测值进行预测。例如，一位学监希望确定一个大型学校系统中不吃早餐就来上学、接种过流感疫苗等等的儿童比例。学监只要有一点统计学知识就会知道，询问每个孩子既无必要又效率低下；整个学区的比例可以通过抽取仅100个孩子的样本来相当准确地估计。因此，推断性统计的目的是仅通过对一个总体中一个样本的特征的了解来预测或估计该总体的特征。
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