真题实战 · 英语一 · 科技文明话题 · 难度 ★★★★☆ 2013年考研英语（一）Text 3 精讲 别急着悲观——人类的未来，有证据可以乐观 潘老师精讲 · 真题实战系列 做题前建议先不看解析独立完成，再对照四步法复盘 |
先看结构：全文 7 段一条主线
逐段精读（重点词已标色）
① Up until a few decades ago, our visions of the future were largely—though by no means uniformly—glowingly positive.② Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfillment and opportunity for all.
参考译文：直到几十年前，我们对未来的设想大体上——尽管绝非一致地——是洋溢喜悦、积极乐观的。科学技术将治愈人类的所有弊病，为所有人带来圆满而有希望的生活。
词汇点拨：glowingly 热烈地，洋溢地（此处=充满喜悦的）｜ by no means 绝非，绝不（= not at all）｜ uniformly 一致地｜ cure 治愈｜ ills 弊病，问题（此处为名词复数）｜ fulfillment 满足感，成就感｜ opportunity 机会
① Now utopia has grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemic flu and to climate change.② You might even be tempted to assume that humanity has little future to look forward to.
参考译文：如今乌托邦已不时兴了，因为我们更加深刻地认识到所面临的一系列威胁——从小行星撞击到流行性流感，再到气候变化。你甚至可能会忍不住假定：人类几乎没有值得期待的未来。
词汇点拨：utopia 乌托邦，理想国｜ unfashionable 过时的，不时兴的｜ appreciation 认识，理解（此处非"欣赏"）｜ asteroid 小行星｜ epidemic 流行病的｜ be tempted to do 忍不住想做｜ assume 假定，认为｜ little 几乎不（表否定，修饰不可数名词）
① But such gloominess is misplaced.② The fossil record shows that many species have endured for millions of years—so why shouldn't we?③ Take a broader look at our species' place in the universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years.④ Look up Homo sapiens in the "Red List" of threatened species of the International Union for the Conversation of Nature (IUCN), and you will read: "Listed as Least Concern as the species is very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline."
参考译文：但这种悲观情绪是错位的。化石记录表明，许多物种已经存续了数百万年——那我们为什么不能呢？放眼我们物种在宇宙中的位置，就会清楚看到：我们极有机会存续数万年，甚至数十万年。在世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）的濒危物种"红色名录"中查一下智人，你会读到："列为无危，因为该物种分布极广、适应力强、数量正在增长，且没有导致总体数量下降的重大威胁。"
词汇点拨：gloominess 悲观，忧郁（gloomy 的名词）｜ misplaced 错位的，不合适的（此处=没有根据的）｜ fossil record 化石记录｜ endure 存续，持久｜ species 物种｜ the Conversation of Nature 自然保护（注意原文为 Conversation，系 Conservation 的拼写变体）｜ Least Concern 无危（IUCN 最低威胁等级）｜ distributed 分布的｜ adaptable 适应力强的
① So what does our deep future hold?② A growing number of researchers and organisations are now thinking seriously about that question.③ For example, the Long Now Foundation has as its flagship project a mechanical clock that is designed to still be marking time thousands of years hence.
参考译文：那么，我们遥远的未来会是什么样子？越来越多的研究者和机构正在认真思考这个问题。例如，恒今基金会（Long Now Foundation）的主打项目是一台机械钟，其设计目标是在数千年后仍能计时。
词汇点拨：deep future 遥远的未来（深度未来）｜ a growing number of 越来越多的｜ organisation 组织（英式拼写）｜ flagship 旗舰的，主打的｜ mechanical 机械的｜ mark time 计时｜ hence 从现在起（thousands of years hence = 数千年后）
① Perhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future.② The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it's perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage.③ That's one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.
参考译文：也许是出于任性，思考如此漫长的时间尺度，可能比思考更近期的未来更容易。当今技术的潜在发展及其社会后果，复杂得令人眼花缭乱，或许最好留给科幻作家和未来学家，去探索我们能够设想的种种可能性。这正是我们创办《Arc》的原因之一——一份致力于探讨近期未来的新刊物。
词汇点拨：willfully 任性地，固执地｜ lengthy 漫长的｜ timescale 时间尺度｜ immediate future 近期未来｜ dazzlingly 令人眼花缭乱地｜ complicated 复杂的｜ science fiction 科幻小说｜ futurologist 未来学家｜ envisage 设想，展望｜ launch 创办，推出｜ publication 刊物｜ be dedicated to 致力于
① But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance.② As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.
参考译文：但若把眼光放得更长远，我们能以相当大的把握说出的东西，数量惊人。一如往常，过去掌握着通往未来的钥匙：我们现在已经识别出足够多的塑造地球及人类历史的长期模式，足以对后代将身处的情形做出基于证据的预测。
词汇点拨：take a longer view 把眼光放长远｜ considerable 相当大的，可观的｜ assurance 把握，确信（with assurance = 有把握地）｜ as so often 一如往常，屡见不鲜的是｜ hold the key to 掌握……的关键｜ identify 识别，找出｜ pattern 模式，规律｜ evidence-based 基于证据的｜ forecast 预测｜ descendant 后代，子孙
① This long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be a passing fad.② To be sure, the future is not all rosy.③ But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.
参考译文：这一长远的视角，使对我们前景的悲观看法更可能只是一时的风潮。诚然，未来并非一片光明。但我们现在已有足够的知识来减少许多曾威胁早期人类生存的风险，并改善后代人的命运。
词汇点拨：perspective 视角，观点｜ pessimistic 悲观的（反义 optimistic）｜ prospect 前景，前途｜ passing fad 一时的风尚，过眼云烟｜ to be sure 诚然，确实｜ rosy 美好的，乐观的（not all rosy = 并非一片光明）｜ knowledgeable 知识渊博的｜ existence 生存，存在｜ improve the lot of 改善……的命运
核心方法：阅读四步法（本篇全程演示）
逐题精讲（31—35 题）
31. Our vision of the future used to be inspired by__________.（我们过去的未来愿景，其灵感来自______）
| 方法要点： |
32. The IUCN's "Red List" suggest that human being are__________.（IUCN 的"红色名录"表明，人类是______）
| 方法要点： |
33. Which of the following is true according to Paragraph 5?（根据第 5 段，下列哪一项是正确的？）
| 方法要点： |
34. To ensure the future of mankind, it is crucial to__________.（为了确保人类的未来，关键是要______）
| 方法要点： |
35. Which of the following would be the best title for the text?（下列哪一项最适合做本文的标题？）
| 方法要点： |
高频词汇与短语积累（可直接背诵）
长难句拆解（考场 30 秒扫读）
Now utopia has grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemic flu and to climate change.
拆：[主句：utopia has grown unfashionable（乌托邦已过时）] + [as 原因状语从句：we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of threats（facing us 现在分词作定语修饰 threats：我们所面临的）] + [from...to...and to... 介词链列举威胁范围]。
译：如今乌托邦已不时兴了，因为我们更加深刻地认识到所面临的一系列威胁——从小行星撞击到流行性流感，再到气候变化。
点：as 在此表原因（= because），不是"随着"；from...to...and to... 整体看作一个"威胁清单"，扫读时可整块跳过。
Look up Homo sapiens in the "Red List" of threatened species of the International Union for the Conversation of Nature (IUCN), and you will read: "Listed as Least Concern as the species is very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline."
拆：[祈使句 Look up...（去查）＋ and ＋ 主句 you will read...（你就会读到）] + 冒号引号内 [as 原因从句：the species is ①very widely distributed ②adaptable ③currently increasing ④there are no major threats...（4 个并列理由）]。
译：在世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）的濒危物种"红色名录"中查一下智人，你会读到："列为无危，因为该物种分布极广、适应力强、数量正在增长，且没有导致总体数量下降的重大威胁。"
点："祈使句 + and + 陈述句" = "如果你……就会……"（= if you..., you will...）；as 引导原因，四个并列成分解释"无危"的理由——正是 32 题答案（sustained species 可持续物种）的证据。
The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it's perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage.
拆：[主语：The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences（插入语并列，主语很长）] + [谓语：is dazzlingly complicated] + and [it 形式主语 ＋ 真主语 to explore the many possibilities（we can envisage 省略 that 的定语从句修饰 possibilities）]。
译：当今技术的潜在发展及其社会后果，复杂得令人眼花缭乱，或许最好交给科幻作家和未来学家，去探索我们能够设想的种种可能性。
点：it's best left to sb. to do = 最好留给某人去做；主语过长时先抓谓语 is complicated；"复杂难测" = 33 题 D 项 hard to conceive 的同义替换。
As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.
拆：[主句：the past holds the key to the future（过去掌握着通往未来的钥匙）] + 冒号解释"钥匙"的具体内容：[we have identified enough of the long-term patterns（shaping the history of the planet, and our species 分词短语作定语修饰 patterns）＋ to make evidence-based forecasts 不定式表目的] + [in which 定语从句修饰 situations]。
译：一如往常，过去掌握着通往未来的钥匙：我们现在已经识别出足够多的塑造地球及人类历史的长期模式，足以对后代将身处的情形做出基于证据的预测。
点：As so often = 和往常一样；holds the key to 是理解 34 题的关键——"借鉴过去经验"（draw on our experience from the past）正是答案；in which 定语从句可先跳过不影响主干。
本篇方法总结（可迁移到所有细节题）
因果链细节题防倒置 题干问"灵感/来源"时抓因果动词（would cure…leading to…）：科技在前是来源，fulfillment/opportunity 在后是结果，"结果当来源"必错。（31 题） | 专名细节题防词块错位 IUCN / Red List 引号内容逐词精读，答案靠同义概括（Least Concern → sustained）；misplaced 是修饰"悲观"的，被挪去形容"人类"即词块错位。（32 题） |
段落判断题防"增词" which is true 逐句比对主谓宾：dazzlingly complicated = hard to conceive；选项用原文词（Arc）却加原文没有的动作（limit 限制）即增词曲解。（33 题） | 标题题话题+态度双覆盖 首段话题（人类前景）＋态度词链（glowingly positive → misplaced → assurance → passing fad）＋末段结论三合一；排除"态度相反"（Uncertainty）。（35 题） |
答案速查：31-B 32-A 33-D 34-C 35-C
错题不要只看答案，请用四步法重走一遍定位流程，找到自己的断点（是定位词找错？还是精读没抓住转折？）
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